OVER THERE! OVER THERE!
The raucous, antic campaign season reaches its climax tomorrow. Just in time for the really big happening– the Presidential extravaganza – that kicks off with the Orange primate’s announcement that he generously will make himself available to resume the jihad to restore America to greatness – all out of selfless love of country. Looking back at the mid-terms, it is striking how little we have been enlightened about most of the grave issues that confront us. The exception is abortion. We also have learned a good deal about the complete takeover of the Republican Party by the Far Right and the companion truth that Fascism is now a tributary of the country’s political bloodstream.
Almost nothing has been said about foreign relations other than the total immersion in the psychodrama that is Ukraine. Of course, for the Ukrainian civilians and conscripts, the experience is brutal. So, too, is it for the civilians of Donetsk who have been the target of shelling for the past 6 years which has killed 16,000 of them, according to a U.N. Commission. A conflict of such magnitude in which we are a major protagonist usually stirs debate; it becomes central to public discourse. There is none in this instance. Instead, the entire country has been swept up in the passions of a vicarious crusade. They are intoxicated by a heady brew of paranoia, an anxious crisis of self-esteem, hubris, the fear of losing the privileged rank as the unchallenged global Number One, and a collective narcissism that makes them unable to distinguish between reality and a comforting fable. Peter the Hermite would feel right at home.
What is our Jerusalem? There is no crisp answer. Is this deeply corrupted country marked by political repression - all parties banned except the government’s - able to fill that role? Are Western values at stake as they are not in some other places that receive our benediction: Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Egypt, Bolsonaro’s Brazil, Erdogan’s Turkiye, the conquistador junta that seized power in Bolivia, the murderous cabal that we installed in Honduras = or Israel in Palestine?
Well, the blunt truth has been starkly laid out for us by President Biden and documented in the Pentagon’s just released 2022 Strategic Review. We have declared an epochal war with Russia and China to decide who is going to dominate the world for the balance of the 21st century. Haven’t heard about it? One reason is the din of the empty electioneering rhetoric that stifles everything else; the other is cultural bias that transforms even the most consequential matters into a facsimile of a Super Bowl pre-game show.
In truth, we are taking a path that has a serious chance of leading to a military intervention carrying the risk of a live-fire encounter with Russia. Over the past six months, Washington has deployed one or two thousand service members to Ukraine. They are placed at the highest levels as de facto advisers and tactical planners, provide critical assistance in making operational high-tech weaponry like the HIMARS missile system which the Ukrainians could not master, American satellites and aircraft provide critical real-time feed to Ukrainian forces. Their number will be increased in the coming weeks disguised as inspectors auditing the storage and safeguarding of the flood of weapons that we and our allies have donated. (A substantial fraction of which already have gone on the global arms black market).
In addition, we have deployed the 101st Airborne division in neighboring Poland and Roumania. Let us also bear in mind that U.S. became a de facto belligerent when it – along with a few friends – blew up the Nordstrom II gas pipeline which is a joint Russo-German project partially owned by Russia and the potential source of considerable export earnings. (Why Berlin acquiesced in the loss such a vital asset, thereby crippling its economy, is another story). The sabotage is tantamount to an act of war – as we would denounce a Russian sabotage of the KEYSTINE XL pipeline bringing tar sands oil from Canada to the Gulf coast.
Moreover, a plan to insert forces of an American-led “coalition of the willing” in order to establish a buffer zone protecting Ukrainian territory west of the Dnieper in the (likely) event of a major Russian break-though is taking shape. There is a rough precedent in Syria where we have seized a large parcel of territory in the northeast, occupying it along with its oil wells for the last six years. In that case, it is less of a buffer than a pressure point on the legitimate Syrian government and a blocking force to prevent a land corridor between Iran and Damascus.
An appraisal of the where, when, how and implications of such a progression is not part of this brief commentary. Most important at this stage waking up to the impending crisis as we move closer to the brink. Instead, I am attaching 2 videos: succinct, rigorous analyses of what might lie ahead. Their value of the first is enhanced by an instructive comparison between our incremental engagement in Vietnam and what might unfold in Ukraine. The relevant discussion begins at minute 6:00 (24 total).